Indian Stock Market Sensex, Nifty 50 Drop Over 1% This Week

The Indian stock market faced a turbulent week ending June 13, 2025, with the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 declining by 1.30% and 1.14%, respectively. The Sensex closed at 81,118.60, down 573.38 points, while the Nifty 50 settled at 24,718.60, shedding 169.60 points on Friday. The Nifty Bank index fell even harder, dropping 1.9% to 55,527.35. Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel’s attack on Iran’s capital, coupled with foreign capital outflows and rising crude oil prices, spooked investors, leading to a volatile week. As markets head into the new week, experts weigh in on whether this correction could deepen, with key support and resistance levels in focus.

Market Performance: A Week of Losses

The Indian equity benchmarks extended losses for the second consecutive session on Friday, June 13, driven by global jitters. The Sensex plummeted over 1,300 points intraday to hit 80,354.59, while the Nifty 50 touched a low of 24,473, down 1.7% from its previous close of 24,888.20. The week saw the Sensex lose 1,070.39 points and the Nifty drop 284.45 points, reflecting a cautious market mood. Midcap and smallcap indices also faced pressure, with the BSE Midcap index declining 0.90% and the BSE Smallcap index slipping 0.13%. The overall market capitalization of BSE-listed firms fell by approximately ₹2.4 lakh crore to ₹447.2 lakh crore, erasing investor wealth significantly.

Despite the downturn, select stocks bucked the trend. Bharat Electronics (up 2%), ONGC (up 1.28%), and Tech Mahindra (up 0.83%) were among the top Nifty 50 gainers on Friday, while high-volume stocks like Vodafone Idea (46.91 crore shares) and GTL Infrastructure (42.6 crore shares) saw active trading.

Why Did the Market Fall?

Several factors contributed to the market’s decline, as outlined by analysts:

Geopolitical Tensions: Israel’s strike on Tehran heightened fears of escalation in the Middle East, pushing Brent crude oil prices higher. As India imports most of its crude, this spike negatively impacted oil-related stocks like HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil, with the Nifty Oil & Gas index falling 1.3%.
Foreign Capital Outflows: Sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), driven by global uncertainties like US-China trade tensions and Trump-era tariffs, weighed on the market. The Indian rupee weakened by 73 paise to 86.25 against the US dollar, further dampening sentiment.
Technical Weakness: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on weekly charts and slipped below its 20-day simple moving average (20-DMA) of 24,850, signaling short-term weakness. Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted that as long as Nifty remains below 24,850, the weak sentiment could persist.
Global Market Cues: Asian peers like Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi also declined, reflecting a global risk-off mood. Gold prices surged over ₹1 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX, indicating a shift to safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels

Experts provided key technical insights for the Nifty 50’s near-term outlook:

Support Levels: The immediate support is at 24,400–24,600, a critical zone highlighted by Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking. A decisive break below 24,600 could trigger a sharper correction towards 24,000 or lower, with some X posts suggesting a bearish target of 23,900.
Resistance Levels: The 24,850 level, aligning with the 20-DMA, is a key hurdle. A sustained move above this could spark a recovery towards 25,000–25,200, where selling pressure was previously observed. A breakout above 25,200 could signal a fresh uptrend, potentially targeting 25,600–25,800.

The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, jumped 7.59% to 15.08 on Friday, reflecting heightened investor nervousness. The Nifty’s rejection near 25,200 and its drop below the 9-EMA and 20-DMA indicate a pause in the prior uptrend, with consolidation or further correction likely unless 24,850 is reclaimed.

Also Read: Tata Motors Share Price Dips 5% Why Is the Stock Falling in 2025

Will the Correction Continue?

Analysts remain divided on the Nifty’s trajectory. Amol Athawale warns that a close below 24,400 could deepen the correction, potentially dragging the index to 24,000. X posts echo this bearish sentiment, with one user predicting a “double top breakdown” targeting 23,900 if 24,800 support fails. Conversely, Mishra’s earlier analysis on June 8 suggested a “buy on dips” strategy as long as 24,600 holds, with banking and financial stocks as top picks.

The upcoming week will be influenced by several triggers:

Central Bank Meetings: Decisions from the US Federal Reserve and other global central banks could impact market sentiment, especially amid US tariff uncertainties.
Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could keep crude oil prices elevated, pressuring oil-dependent economies like India.
FII Flows: Continued FII selling, as seen in recent weeks, could exacerbate the correction, though domestic institutional investor (DII) buying has provided some cushion.
RBI Policy Impact: The Reserve Bank of India’s recent 50-basis-point repo rate cut and 100-basis-point CRR cut on June 6 boosted markets temporarily, with the Nifty gaining 1.02% that day. However, the effect has faded amid global headwinds.

Tips for Investors and Traders

Monitor Key Levels: Watch 24,400–24,600 for support and 24,850 for resistance. A break below 24,400 could signal a sell-off, while a move above 24,850 may trigger a bounce.
Stay Cautious: Geopolitical risks and FII outflows warrant a conservative approach. Avoid aggressive bets and consult financial advisors, as advised on X.
Track Global Cues: Stay updated on US-China trade talks, Middle East tensions, and crude oil prices, as they could sway market direction.
Focus on Sectors: Banking and financials remain resilient despite the Nifty Bank’s 1.9% weekly drop. Stocks like HDFC Bank and Axis Bank, which rallied on June 6, could lead a recovery if sentiment improves.
Check Live Updates: Follow platforms like livemint.com or nseindia.com for real-time market data and expert analysis.

Broader Market Context

The Indian market has been volatile in 2025, with the Nifty 50 up 12% since March but 15.80% below its September 2024 high of 26,277.35. The Sensex and Nifty logged three straight monthly gains until May, with the Nifty rising 1.7% to 24,750.70 and the Sensex gaining 1.5% to 81,451.01. However, recent weeks have seen profit booking, with mid and smallcap indices underperforming, as evidenced by the Nifty Midcap 100’s 2.49% fall on Friday.

Earlier bullish phases, like the RBI-led rally on June 6, saw the Nifty hit 25,003 and the Sensex reach 82,188, driven by banking stocks like IDFC First Bank and Axis Bank. However, the current correction, fueled by global uncertainties, has shifted sentiment, with X users noting a “risk-off” mood due to Middle East conflicts.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

For the week starting June 16, 2025, the Nifty 50 is likely to remain volatile, with 24,400 as a critical support. A hold above this level could lead to consolidation between 24,400–24,850, with a potential recovery to 25,000 if resistance is breached. However, a decisive drop below 24,400 could push the index towards 24,000 or lower, as warned by analysts and X posts. Investors should adopt a cautious stance, focusing on defensive sectors like IT and select banking stocks while awaiting clarity on global cues.

The Indian stock market’s correction reflects broader global challenges, but its resilience, backed by domestic buying and RBI measures, offers hope. Stay vigilant and trade wisely in this uncertain phase!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Consult a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions. Data is based on reliable sources, including LiveMint and market expert analyses. For live updates, visit livemint.com or nseindia.com.

Also Read: Nifty Bank Prediction for Monday, June 16, 2025: Index Slips Below 55,600, Eyes 55,000 Support