Nifty Prediction For Monday, June 16, 2025: Index Dips Below 20-DMA, Key Support At 24,400

Nifty Prediction for Monday: The Indian stock market closed in the red on Friday, June 13, 2025, with the Nifty 50 index falling 169.60 points, or 0.68%, to settle at 24,718.60, slipping below its 20-day moving average (20-DMA). The BSE Sensex also declined by 573.38 points, or 0.70%, ending at 81,118.60. On a weekly basis, the Nifty dropped 284.45 points, or 1.13%, while the Sensex shed 1,070.39 points, or 1.30%. Weak global cues and a spike in Brent crude oil prices, triggered by geopolitical tensions following Israel’s attack on Iran’s capital, weighed heavily on investor sentiment. As markets gear up for Monday, June 16, here’s a detailed look at Nifty’s outlook, support, and resistance levels, based on expert analysis.

Nifty’s Technical Outlook for Monday

Laxmikant Shukla, Technical Research Analyst at Yes Securities, shared insights with ET NOW Swadesh, highlighting key technical levels for the Nifty 50. “When Nifty was around 25,200, it faced stiff resistance and entered correction mode,” Shukla noted. “On Friday, the index opened with a gap-down and closed below 24,800, trading below its 20-DMA, signaling a bearish tilt.”

Support Levels: The critical support for Nifty is at 24,400. As long as the index holds above this level, it is likely to remain in a consolidation phase. A decisive drop below 24,400 could trigger further correction, potentially dragging the index towards 24,000 or lower, as some X posts suggest a bearish target of 23,900.
Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is at 24,850, aligning with the 20-DMA. A sustained move above this level could push Nifty towards 25,000, with a stronger resistance at 25,200, where selling pressure was previously observed.

Shukla emphasized that geopolitical developments, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, will significantly influence market movements next week. “If tensions escalate, markets could remain under pressure,” he cautioned. However, holding above 24,400 offers hope for consolidation rather than a sharp decline.

Market Sentiment and Chart Patterns

The Nifty’s weekly chart shows a bearish trend, with some X users pointing to a “double top breakdown” after the index closed below the key support of 24,800, raising concerns of a potential slide towards 23,900 or even 21,800 if bearish momentum persists. Despite this, Shukla’s analysis suggests that the 24,400 level is a strong support, and a break below it would be needed to confirm deeper corrections.

Posts on X also reflect cautious sentiment, with one user noting, “The resilience in deep OTM Put positions indicates persistent downside hedging,” suggesting a bearish outlook unless sentiment shifts decisively. Another user predicted a possible downside after 11:00 AM on Monday, with a bearish bias for Tuesday’s early and late trading hours.

The Nifty’s daily chart indicates it is trading below the 20-DMA, a technical signal of short-term weakness. However, earlier reports from May 2025 noted bullish patterns like small positive candles when Nifty held above key supports, suggesting potential for recovery if it reclaims 24,850.

Factors Influencing Monday’s Market

Several factors will shape Nifty’s performance on June 16, 2025:

Geopolitical Tensions: The Israel-Iran conflict and rising Brent crude oil prices are key concerns, as they could increase volatility and dampen investor confidence.
Global Cues: Weak global markets, including a cautious outlook in Asia-Pacific indices, contributed to Friday’s decline. Any positive developments, such as easing tensions or US Federal Reserve signals, could support a recovery.
Sectoral Performance: The Nifty Bank index fell 555.20 points, or 0.99%, to 55,527.35 on Friday, underperforming the broader market. Banking stocks, a key driver in previous rallies, will be critical to watch.
Technical Indicators: The Nifty’s position below the 20-DMA and the bearish double top pattern noted on X suggest caution, but the oversold RSI in earlier reports (e.g., February 2025) hints at a possible bounce if support holds.

Tips for Investors and Traders

Monitor Key Levels: Watch 24,400 for support and 24,850 for resistance. A break below 24,400 could signal a sell-off, while a move above 24,850 may indicate a bullish reversal.
Stay Cautious: Geopolitical risks could keep markets volatile. Avoid aggressive positions and consult financial advisors before trading, as suggested in X posts.
Track Global News: Keep an eye on updates regarding the Israel-Iran conflict and crude oil prices, as these could sway market sentiment.
Check Live Updates: Follow platforms like etnownews.com or nseindia.com for real-time market data and expert insights.

Broader Market Context: Nifty Prediction for Monday

The Nifty’s recent performance contrasts with earlier bullish trends in 2025. For instance, in May, the index formed a small bullish candle with a target of 25,000 if it crossed 24,500, driven by banking stock rallies and foreign fund inflows. However, the current correction, down 15.80% from its all-time high of 26,277.35 on September 27, 2024, reflects sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) selling and global uncertainties. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices also faced heavy selling on Friday, declining 2.49% and 3.01%, respectively, indicating broader market pressure.

Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Earlier reports from March 2025 highlighted bullish engulfing candles and RSI above 65, suggesting potential for recovery if Nifty holds key supports. The current scenario, however, requires a decisive move above 24,850 to regain bullish momentum.

What to Expect on Monday

For Monday, June 16, 2025, experts predict a cautious start for the Nifty 50, with the index likely to test the 24,400 support level. If it holds, consolidation between 24,400 and 24,850 is possible, with a potential upside to 25,000 if resistance is breached. However, a fall below 24,400 could lead to a sharper correction towards 24,000 or lower, as warned by X users targeting 23,900. Geopolitical developments will be crucial, and traders should adopt a “buy on dips” strategy only if support holds, as suggested in earlier bullish phases.

The Indian stock market remains at a critical juncture, with the Nifty 50’s trajectory hinging on technical levels and global cues. Stay informed and trade wisely to navigate this volatile phase!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions. Data is based on reliable sources, including ET NOW and market expert analyses. For live updates, visit etnownews.com or nseindia.com.

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